Does resting heart rate predict mortality?

Answered November 2, 202610 sources

EvidenceBModerateGood evidence in people with one real weakness. New studies could change the answer.

Yes. A faster resting heart rate is linked to a higher risk of early death, and the link holds in many large studies. Whether the heart rate itself causes the extra risk is unclear.

Who it's for
Adults wanting a rough risk marker; it can't predict any one person's future.
What to expect
Each 10 beats a minute faster is linked to about 9% higher risk of death.
Watch out for
A link in observational studies doesn't prove a fast pulse causes early death.
Faster resting heart rate goes with higher death risk

Each dot is a risk ratio for dying from any cause, with a line for its 95% range, comparing faster resting heart rates with the lowest group.

Faster resting heart rate goes with higher death risk
ResultEstimate95% rangeReading
Heart rate 60 to 80 beats/min1.121.07 to 1.17Clear worsening
Heart rate over 80 beats/min1.451.34 to 1.57Clear worsening

Source 1 CMAJ, 2016

Each 10 beat rise in heart rate raises death risk

Each dot is a risk ratio for death from any cause per 10 beats/min higher resting heart rate, with a line for its 95% range.

Each 10 beat rise in heart rate raises death risk
ResultEstimate95% rangeReading
Pooled studies, general population1.091.07 to 1.12Clear worsening
Larger pooled analysis1.171.14 to 1.19Clear worsening
People with heart failure1.11.08 to 1.13Clear worsening

Sources 1 CMAJ, 2016; 2 Nutr Metab Cardiovasc Dis, 2017; 6 J Card Fail, 2021

Figure 4. Mendelian randomization shows absence of linear and non-linear associations between genetically predicted RHR and all-cause mortality.

Figure 4 from Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease, Nat Commun 2023. Licence: CC BY 4.0

Figure 5. Mendelian randomization of genetically predicted RHR on cardiovascular diseases.

Figure 5 from Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease, Nat Commun 2023. Licence: CC BY 4.0

What the studies show

  • A review that pooled 46 studies following about 1.2 million people found each 10 beats a minute increase was linked to a 9% higher relative risk How much more or less likely something is in one group than another, as a ratio. A big relative change can still be a small change for any one person. of death from any cause and 8% higher for heart disease death. People above 80 beats a minute had about a 45% higher relative risk of death than those with the lowest rates. Results varied a lot between studies, and publication bias was detected1.
  • A second review of 87 studies found a 17% higher relative risk of death from any cause per 10 beats a minute. It also found links with heart failure, stroke and cancer. Results differed widely between studies2.
  • A study pooling 12 cohorts of 112,680 people in Asia and the Pacific, followed for about 7 years, found a link above roughly 65 beats a minute and none below it. People at 80 or more had about 54% higher relative risk of death than those under 655.
  • In people with heart failure, a review of 62 studies (163,445 people) linked each 10 beats a minute increase to 10% higher relative risk of death. The link was rated high quality6. Similar patterns appeared in people with coronary artery disease3,8.
  • Long-running studies of healthy-at-start adults, such as Framingham (5,070 people, 30 years), found death rates rose steadily with heart rate7. A Chicago study over 22 years found the link in younger men and middle-aged men and women, but not in women aged 18 to 3910.
  • Genetic analysis of up to 835,465 people found no evidence that a genetically higher heart rate raises the risk of death. The authors say earlier positive genetic findings were probably false positives4. This suggests part of the observational Studies that watch what happens to people rather than assigning a treatment. They can show links, not cause and effect. link may reflect other factors, such as illness or fitness.

These figures compare groups, so the gain or loss for one person depends on how high their risk was to begin with.

Key studies

StudyWhoWhat it found
Review of 46 studies, 20161About 1.2 million general-population adults9% higher relative risk of death per 10 beats a minute
Review of 87 studies, 20172Adults in cohort studies Researchers follow a group of people over time without giving them a treatment. It can show links, not cause and effect.17% higher relative risk of death per 10 beats a minute
Pooled 12 cohorts, 20145112,680 adults in Asia-PacificRisk rose above about 65 beats a minute
Review of 62 studies, 20216163,445 people with heart failure10% higher relative risk of death per 10 beats a minute
Genetic analysis, 20234Up to 835,465 peopleNo genetic link with death from any cause

What we don't know

  • Whether lowering a resting heart rate in healthy people lowers their risk of death.
  • Why the genetic analysis and the observational studies disagree.

Try it yourself: Resting heart rate

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Written by AI from the studies listed, without review by a clinician, and graded with the GRADE method. It can be wrong, so check the studies it cites. Education, not medical advice.